{"id":6405,"date":"2021-03-24T16:08:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-24T15:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/maritimafrica.com\/en\/?p=6405"},"modified":"2021-03-24T12:21:16","modified_gmt":"2021-03-24T11:21:16","slug":"what-is-the-state-of-somalia-and-what-are-the-prospects-for-a-return-to-piracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maritimafrica.com\/en\/what-is-the-state-of-somalia-and-what-are-the-prospects-for-a-return-to-piracy\/","title":{"rendered":"What is the state of Somalia and what are the prospects for a return to Piracy?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/a>
Photo by Captain Phillips<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ensuring onshore socioeconomic stability remains key to repressing a\u00a0resurgence of piracy in the Indian Ocean.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

The lack of\u00a0maritime security incidents which compromised vessel and crew safety\u00a0within the Horn of Africa\u00a0in\u00a02020 is\u00a0continued\u00a0evidence that\u00a0piracy within this region remains dormant. This is\u00a0a\u00a0direct\u00a0result of\u00a0international efforts to secure the surrounding waters and increased onshore stability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Despite the lack of piracy,\u00a0Somalia\u2019s improved socioeconomic situation is fragile. In the longer term, a deterioration in conditions could provide the motive for existing and highly capable pirates to resume\u00a0a\u00a0once profitable\u00a0activity. Piracy flourishes when conditions become desperate ashore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

There are three key emerging challenges to Somalia\u2019s stability in 2021 which risk recreating the conditions that drove individuals to piracy at the height of the problem a decade ago. These are the economic situation, the security vacuum left by troop\u00a0withdrawals, and regional and domestic conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Somalia\u2019s economic situation is strained. Illegal fishing continues to undermine Somali livelihoods; remittances which normally support up to 40% of Somalis have been reduced by up to 50% in some areas due to COVID-19,\u00a0and\u00a0natural disaster\u00a0is\u00a0exacerbating food insecurity\u00a0with both drought and the worst locust swarm in 25 years sweeping the country.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

The COVID-19 pandemic has also impacted funding received by aid organisations working in the country,\u00a0which may constrain their ability to react effectively in an increasingly unstable environment.\u00a0The UK government\u00a0is the 2nd\u00a0largest provider of aid to Somalia.\u00a0Now\u00a0a leak has revealed\u00a0significant cuts,\u00a0potentially\u00a0in the region of 60% of the\u00a0current\u00a0budget<\/span>,\u00a0are\u00a0being discussed by the UK Foreign Office with\u00a0the pandemic being blamed\u00a0for its damage to the UK economy. This\u00a0will severely\u00a0impact\u00a0military training\u00a0spending\u00a0in Somalia\u00a0and reduce frontline services such as health clinics.\u00a0The reduction coincides\u00a0with\u00a0other\u00a0stabilising forces such as AMISOM also scaling back their presence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

On the orders of President Trump, US troops withdrew from Somalia in December 2020. This is at a time when\u00a0Somalia\u2019s neighbour Ethiopia has become embroiled in an internal conflict between government forces and the Tigray Regional Government. This has resulted in peacekeeping troops being re-deployed from Somalia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Fallout from this conflict may destabilise the wider region\u00a0and\u00a0create a power vacuum for\u00a0the terrorist group\u00a0Al-Shabaab to exploit. It\u00a0already has a strong footing in\u00a0Somalia\u00a0and has previously expanded into territory\u00a0from which\u00a0troops have been withdrawn.\u00a0Finally, Somalia\u2019s\u00a0national election was scheduled for February 8th but has been delayed as negotiations between the central government and federal states have failed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

These combined threats could overwhelm Somalia\u2019s capacity to provide the\u00a0internal\u00a0stability which has contained piracy.\u00a0Added to these issues, Somalia has not been unaffected by the proxy fighting in the Red Sea region either. UN security forces have noted the conflict has facilitated the trafficking of regular shipments of arms into Somalia and Yemen from Iran. Thus,\u00a0a return of the offshore risk cannot be ignored in the medium to long term.<\/strong><\/p>\n

By Kate Backshall, Dryad Global Analyst.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 Ensuring onshore socioeconomic stability remains key to repressing a\u00a0resurgence<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6407,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,1378,1673],"tags":[1493,488,1871,1306,32,1485,410,1674],"class_list":["post-6405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog-en","category-maritime-security","category-somalia","tag-africa-en","tag-africa-maritime-security","tag-horn-of-africa","tag-indian-ocean-en","tag-maritime","tag-maritime-in-africa","tag-maritime-security","tag-somalia"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat is the state of Somalia and what are the prospects for a 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