The Quantum Revolution and Submarine Cable Cybersecurity – A Looming Challenge

“Imagine a world where decades of encrypted diplomatic communications, trade agreements, and defence strategies are decrypted overnight. This is not a distant possibility—it is a timeline dictated by the pace of quantum innovation. The submarine cables we rely on could become conduits for exposing secrets, crippling economies, and destabilizing governments.”

Quantum communication, once confined to science fiction, is now on the cusp of reshaping global security paradigms. With quantum-secure networks projected to become operational as early as 2025, the transformative potential of quantum technologies is undeniable. Yet, this revolution casts a long shadow over the submarine cable industry—those hidden conduits that underpin 97% of the world’s data transmission. Beneath the ocean’s surface, these cables enable global trade, communication, and financial systems, but their security is increasingly under threat in an age where today’s encrypted secrets could become tomorrow’s open books.

Submarine Cables – The Silent Victims of a Quantum Threat

The vulnerabilities of submarine cables can be multifaceted. The threat posed by quantum computing to traditional encryption methods is no longer hypothetical. Cybercriminals and state-sponsored actors are already employing strategies like harvesting encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it in the future when quantum capabilities mature. This “harvest-now, decrypt-later” tactic is not merely a technological concern but a strategic one, as it endangers sensitive information that could retain value for decades. Physical components of the cable network, such as landing stations and repeaters, can also be high-risk targets, especially if these locations, which are essential for amplifying and routing signals, lack adequate physical and cybersecurity measures, they can be exposed to sabotage or cyberattacks.

Operational weaknesses within the submarine cable ecosystem further exacerbate the issue. Legacy systems that were never designed to withstand modern cyber threats continue to form critical parts of the infrastructure. Outdated protocols and patchwork security practices provide easy entry points for attackers. At the same time, geopolitical tensions elevate the stakes, with submarine cables becoming pawns in larger conflicts over technological dominance. Nation-states are racing to develop quantum technologies to secure their communications while positioning themselves to exploit vulnerabilities in others’ systems.[1]

A Double-Edged Sword – Quantum’s Security Promises and Threats

Quantum computing adds a double-edged dimension to this landscape. While innovations like Quantum Key Distribution (QKD)[2] promise unprecedented security, the transition to these technologies introduces transitional risks. Hybrid systems that blend classical and quantum methods may inadvertently create exploitable vulnerabilities during the shift. The complex supply chains involved in integrating quantum technologies into submarine cable networks add another layer of risk. Any weak link—whether through tampered components, insider threats, or insufficient quality control—can compromise an entire system.

Beyond quantum threats, the submarine cable industry faces additional challenges. Cyberattacks on operational technology, insider sabotage, and environmental factors such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events pose significant risks to the physical and functional integrity of these networks. The cumulative effect of these threats underscores the urgency of rethinking how these critical infrastructures are protected.

The Current State of Encryption – Cracks in the Warrior’s Armour

The current reliance on encryption protocols like RSA and ECC further illustrates the precarious state of submarine cable security. While effective against classical computing attacks, these methods are vulnerable to quantum algorithms such as Shor’s, which can break them exponentially faster. This is particularly alarming given the enduring sensitivity of the data carried by these cables, from financial records to defence communications. Once compromised, the damage cannot be undone.

Mitigating the Risks – A Call for Action

To mitigate these risks, the submarine cable industry must act decisively. The adoption of quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms is a critical first step to securing communications in the short term while the full potential of quantum encryption is still being realized.

Quantum-safe algorithms, such as those being standardized by NIST[3], must replace vulnerable protocols. While not as secure as QKD, these algorithms provide a crucial interim defence. Meanwhile, cable landing stations and other critical nodes must be fortified, both physically and digitally, to deter targeted attacks. Enhanced monitoring, rigorous access control, and redundancy measures can bolster resilience against potential threats.

A coordinated international effort is also essential. Submarine cables are not just private assets but shared global resources that underpin modern civilization. Governments and private stakeholders must collaborate to establish security norms, share threat intelligence, and collectively address the challenges posed by the quantum revolution. At the same time, accelerated investment in research is crucial, not only to advance quantum encryption but also to explore complementary solutions such as blockchain to enhance the security of data transmission.

Q-Day [4] – Prepare yourself for an uncertain future

The quantum revolution promises to redefine the way the world communicates, but it also introduces a new era of risks for submarine cable networks. As adversaries stockpile encrypted data and quantum technologies race toward maturity, the window to act is rapidly closing. Protecting these critical infrastructures demands foresight, innovation, and global collaboration. By addressing these challenges proactively, we can transform the quantum revolution into an opportunity to build a more secure and resilient foundation for global connectivity.

[1] https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/protecting-quantum-science-and-technology?utm_source=chatgpt.com | https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/11/07/quantum-computing-and-state-sponsored-cyber-warfare-how-quantum-will-transform-nation-state-cyber-attacks/

[2] Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is a secure method for exchanging encryption keys using quantum properties, ensuring that the keys remain only known to the parties involved. Unlike traditional public key systems, which rely on mathematical algorithms vulnerable to quantum computing, QKD uses the fundamental laws of quantum physics—such as the no-cloning theorem and the ability to detect interference—to guarantee security, making it immune to the increasing power of classical or quantum computational attacks.

[3] NIST Post-Quantum Encryption – https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards

[4] Q-Day – The Day Quantum Computing Hacks Everything